Satellite images recently published by The New York Times are raising concerns about the potential reactivation of China’s Lop Nur nuclear test facility in the remote Xinjiang Autonomous Region. The images, analyzed by Dr. Renny Babiarz, a geospatial intelligence expert, suggest that China may be gearing up for full-fledged nuclear tests or subcritical nuclear explosions, which simulate nuclear blasts using chemical explosives.
The timing of this activity is particularly sensitive amid strained U.S.-China relations. President Biden, aiming to stabilize the relationship, recently met with China’s leader, Xi Jinping, seeking common ground. However, China has dismissed the report, stating it is baseless and an attempt to exaggerate a “China nuclear threat.”
The satellite images reveal a significant transformation of the Lop Nur facility over the past few years. The once modest site has evolved into a modern complex with enhanced security features, including a bunker designed for handling high explosives. The construction of a new airbase, multiple shafts into hill features, and a large drilling rig nearly 90 feet tall further underscore the facility’s upgrade.
Dr. Babiarz’s analysis also points to the construction of a mini-township named Malan, believed to support activities at Lop Nur. The presence of a drilling rig identical to the one at Lop Nur suggests it may serve as a training site for shaft drillers.
The images show China’s commitment to expanding its rocket force, a crucial part of its nuclear triad. The Middlebury Institute of International Studies notes a radical expansion, projecting over 1,000 ballistic missile launchers, including 507 nuclear-capable launchers, by 2028. This shift in China’s missile forces raises concerns about a departure from a previously restrained second-strike nuclear posture to one capable of deterring at multiple conflict levels.
For Bharat, which declared a unilateral moratorium on nuclear testing after its 1998 tests in Pokhran, China’s potential reactivation of Lop Nur poses a significant regional security threat. India, with a more modest nuclear arsenal, relies on computer simulations to predict the yields of any nuclear weapons designs.
As tensions escalate, the international community closely monitors China’s activities at Lop Nur, recognizing the potential global impact of any nuclear testing endeavors.
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