In a surprising move, China has appointed Admiral Dong Jun as its 14th Defence Minister, succeeding Li Shangfu, who mysteriously disappeared after being involved in a scandal. Dong Jun, the former commander of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), is the first naval officer to take on this role. Despite the position being mostly ceremonial, Dong will represent the PLA and China’s military interests in diplomatic interactions with foreign counterparts.
Dong’s extensive naval experience, including commanding the Southern Theater Command responsible for the South China Sea, aligns with China’s focus on territorial claims in the region. Dr. Andrew Erickson, a professor at the US Naval War College, sees Dong’s appointment as strategic, especially in addressing the Taiwan issue, with the upcoming presidential election in January 2024 being one of his first major challenges.
The recent dismissal of several high-ranking military officials, including those from the PLA Rocket Force (PLARF) and PLA Air Force (PLAAF), raises concerns about corruption within the Chinese military. The opaque nature of China’s military and the lack of transparency further add to the challenge. Xi Jinping’s ongoing anti-graft campaign has not fully curbed corruption, and the recent dismissals highlight the depth of the issue.
Xi’s choice of Dong Jun as Defence Minister, despite his naval background, reflects a shift away from appointing PLARF figures. This move suggests Xi’s mistrust of the current state of the PLARF and a desire for personal loyalty. However, critics argue that such a system based on loyalty rather than meritocracy may pose risks in the long run.
The appointment comes at a crucial time, with tensions rising over Taiwan’s upcoming presidential election. China, under Xi’s leadership, remains committed to reunification with Taiwan, but the election is viewed as a potential flashpoint. Dong Jun’s role will involve representing China’s military response to foreign audiences, particularly in addressing concerns related to Taiwan.
As China grapples with leadership changes in its military, questions about the vetting process for key leaders arise. The recent dismissals highlight challenges in maintaining a corruption-free military hierarchy, impacting Xi’s trust in the strategic forces responsible for China’s nuclear arsenal.
Despite Xi’s crackdown on corruption over the past decade, the PLA’s highest leaders continue to face arrest, raising doubts about the effectiveness of the campaign. The recent turmoil within the military leadership may impact China’s ability to take serious military action in the short term, especially regarding Taiwan.
As the world watches China’s military developments closely, the appointment of Admiral Dong Jun and the ongoing leadership shuffle raise important questions about the country’s military capabilities, internal challenges, and its approach to international relations.
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