Pakistan and Iran have agreed on de-escalating tensions, post the back to back attacks through missile and drone strikes. As of late, Pakistan Prime Minister Anwar Ul-Haq Kakar called for a meeting of the high delegates of his administration to review the standoff with Iran. But is there something to ponder on why both these nations which are already facing economic crisis are at each other’s neck at such crucial times?
Iran and Pakistan who carried out missile attacks the past couple days, almost took their relationship to the brim of collapse. On the intervening night of Tuesday and Wednesday, Iran attacked two bases of the anti Iran Baloch militant group, affiliated with Pakistan Jaish Al Adl.
Pakistan first warned of serious consequences and then immediately retaliated with cross border strikes on presumably Iran’s terror sanctuaries.
The unprecedented escalation of hostilities is another siren to the alarming crisis prevailing across the Middle East and beyond. The two countries are adjoined by an unstable border of almost 900 kilometres with Pakistan’s Balochistan province on one side and Iran’s Siestan and Baluchestan province on the other. Some speculate whether the rising conflict will give birth to a third war, other than the one in Ukraine and the one in Gaza.
The Past of the TWO COUNTRIES
Prior to the Islamic revolution, both Pakistan and Iran were strong allies of the United States. However, post 1979 when Ayatollah Khomeini, the ultra conservative Shia became the ruler of Iran, Pakistan which is Sunni majority region, which was also going through Islamisation under military dictator General Zia Ul Haq, found the stark differences to be overbearing on their ties.
Adding heat to that the United States which gradually became Iran’s sworn enemy, became strong allies of Pakistan, under the aegis of mutual defence treaties and Islamabad’s blatant support to the US.
Along with it the oil disputes which were aggravated due to the fact all these oil rich kingdoms were controlled by small groups of families, unlike the Shah’s regime in Iran. In addition, In Afghanistan after the Soviets withdrew again the two countries found each other as opponents.
The two also fought each other through the Northern Alliance which was formed against the Pakistan backed Taliban.
The Conflict arising at the moment
The latest to and fro missile attacks are not the only first time the two nations engaged in combat. Last month, Iran reported that militants of the Jaish Al-Adl attacked a police station in Sistan and Baluchestan, causing 11 Iranian police officers to die.However, the latest attacks came in an unprecedented way. Interestingly, all in the backdrop of Israel’s war in Gaza, which has caused many countries to question the intentions of both the US and Israel, owing to the large number of civilian casualties.
Meanwhile Iran backed Hezbollah, continues to carry out attacks at the Lebanon border since the beginning of Israel Hamas conflict. Meanwhile US is also fighting Iran backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have attacked ships in the Red Sea, touting it as a revenge for Israel’s assault on Gaza.
Despite the ongoing friction Pakistan called Iran “brotherly”, a term which has been used by former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto during her visit to Tehran in November 1995 too. Bhutto had called Iran “a friend, a neighbour and a brother in Islam”, and expressed regret at the tightening of US Sanctions against the country.
However, the relationship soured during the 1999 coup and did not improve till 2008. Followed by a series of mishaps due to Shia Sunni divide. Pakistan’s urge to lead Islam has been a tough to gulp down for Iran, something which caused turbulence even during cordial times.
ALSO READ- “Pakistan carries out retaliatory attacks against Iran”
The Geographical elements
Resembling any other conflicts, the border dispute is one of the major concerns for the two nations. Balochistan, is the region where the borders of Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan meet. The people living in the region have expressed angst against being ruled by both Islamabad and Tehran, with insurgencies erupting across the porous border region for decades. Iran time and again, has also faced multiple uprisings of its Kurdish, Arab and Baloch minorities.
According to reports, the militant group Jaish Al Adl operated from Iran originated from a bigger Sunni militant group Jundallah, which disrupted after Iran assassinated its leader in 2010. In its place Jaish al Adl emerged, designated a foreign terrorist organisation by the US government’s National Counter-terrorism Centre.
The group has been responsible for carrying out killings of eight Iranian border guards, with militants reportedly crossing into Iran from Pakistan, in 2015. Once again, in 2019, the group took responsibility for a suicide bombing that hit a bus carrying Iranian military personnel. The attack killed at least 23 in Sistan Baluchestan. On Wednesday, a day after Iran striked missiles at Pakistan, Jaish Al Adl attacked an Iranian military vehicle in Sistan and Baluchestan.
Significantly, Iran has been sponsoring multiple wars in West Asia for strategic influence and other gains. Meanwhile, Pakistan is single handedly responsible for the terrorist activities ongoing in Jammu and Kashmir. But why now? Why the brotherly, islamic nations which are already under hostile conditions both inward and out, suddenly decided to trade their guns at each other?
Some analysts feel that Pakistan is taking advantage of Iran’s vulnerable state. Notably, the Islamic State took responsibility for the terror attack in Iran’s Kerman at Qassem Soliemani’s death anniversary memorial which killed almost 100 people..Islamic State, which by definition is a Sunni Muslim group. However, the fact remains that the world at present, where sponsored assassinations, bombings and claims and counterclaims have become more usual than should be normal, are much flimsy. Analysts feel Iran is being pressured into sponsoring the multiple wars, one against Israel by Hamas and Hezbollah, plus supporting the Houthis in Yemen.
Apart from the United States which is a key player in most conflicts, China is also a major stakeholder in the recent upheaval between Iran and Pakistan. China with all its might will try to support Pakistan for whom a war right now will be rather apocalyptic, amid the monumental poverty, hunger and International debt. The former understands that the implications of war between its two important allies will rather go to many lengths to protect its strategic ambitions.
Comments