After S&P Global, Morgan Stanley has revised its GDP growth forecast upwards for the financial year 2024-25 (FY25) to 6.8 % up from its previous estimate of 6.5 %. The firm also revised its growth forecast for the ongoing financial year, FY24, to 7.9 %.
The revised projections come in the wake of an optimistic outlook on India’s economic trajectory, with Morgan Stanley highlighting the country’s strength and stability as hallmarks of the current cycle.
The firm anticipates a shallow easing cycle in monetary policy, driven by continued traction in industrial and capital expenditure activities.
According to Morgan Stanley, the outlook for India’s GDP growth remains robust, with the expectation that growth will track around 7 % in the fourth quarter of the financial year 2023-24 (QE Mar-24).
This growth momentum is expected to be broad-based, with the gaps between rural-urban consumption and private-public capital expenditure narrowing in FY25.
The firm also anticipates a favourable inflation trajectory, with recent trends indicating a softening in headline inflation. Food inflation, which carries significant weight in the CPI basket, has moderated, providing relief from supply-side shocks.
Furthermore, core inflation has seen meaningful moderation, driven by easing in supply chains and subdued price pressures.
Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley expects headline inflation to average 4.5 % in FY25, down from 5.4 % in FY24, while core inflation is projected to remain muted at 4.1 %.
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