In a recent interaction with PTI editors, Prashant Kishor, a renowned poll strategist and leader of Jan Suraaj, made a significant prediction regarding the upcoming Lok Sabha Elections in 2024. Kishor stated that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to emerge as the number one party in West Bengal, despite the dominance of the Trinamool Congress. He emphasized that neither the BJP nor Prime Minister Narendra Modi is invincible, highlighting missed opportunities by the opposition due to laziness and ineffective strategies.
Kishor, who has worked with various political parties across the ideological spectrum, has been focusing on his Jan Suraj Yatra in Bihar since October 2022. Despite his involvement in the campaigns of parties like the BJP and Congress, he has dedicated himself to bringing about a new era of politics in his home state.
Projections for Telangana, Odisha, Bihar, and Bengal
Kishor also offered insights into other key states, predicting that the BJP will secure a significant position in Telangana and emerge as the leading party in Odisha. He surprised many by suggesting that the BJP could potentially become the number one party in West Bengal. Additionally, he hinted at the BJP making gains in Tamil Nadu, where its vote share might reach double digits.
Challenges for Opposition and BJP’s Strategy
Despite these projections, Kishor highlighted the BJP’s struggle to make substantial inroads in states like Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala, which collectively hold 204 Lok Sabha seats. He pointed out that while the BJP aims for 370 seats in the upcoming elections, achieving such a feat seems unlikely.
Kishor emphasized the importance of the opposition, particularly the Congress, ensuring that the BJP loses around 100 seats in its strongholds of north and west India. However, he expressed skepticism about this scenario, stating that the BJP is likely to maintain its ground in these regions.
Critique of Opposition Strategy
Kishor criticized the opposition for its lack of effort in states where the BJP has been expanding its presence, contrasting the frequent visits of BJP leaders with the minimal efforts of opposition leaders. He emphasized the significance of winning in states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh, stating that victory in Kerala alone would not suffice for the opposition to secure a nationwide win.
Analysis of BJP’s Dominance and Opposition’s Challenges
While acknowledging the BJP’s electoral success, Kishor rejected the notion of an unstoppable march under Modi’s leadership. He drew parallels with the decline of the Congress after its massive win in 1984, suggesting that the BJP’s dominance could face challenges in the future.
Kishor highlighted missed opportunities by the opposition to capitalize on the BJP’s weaknesses, such as its poor performance post-demonetization and during the Covid outbreak. He cautioned against complacency, urging opposition leaders to mount a strong challenge to the ruling party.
Speculation on Post-Poll Scenario
Looking ahead to the post-election scenario, Kishor expressed concerns about the implications of another significant mandate for Modi. While some BJP supporters anticipate fundamental changes, others worry about potential impacts on democracy and the Constitution. Kishor emphasized the importance of political engagement and vigilance, particularly in the face of potential major decisions by the government.
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