The Bharatiya economy is poised for robust growth in the fiscal year 2024-25, with various economic indicators suggesting a positive outlook.
The National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) has forecasted growth higher than 7%, citing strong high-frequency indicators, favorable monsoon predictions, and a promising global economic scenario.
NCAER’s optimism exceeds the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) projection of 7% GDP growth for the same period. While the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have offered slightly lower forecasts, all indicators point towards significant economic expansion.
One key driver of Bharat’s anticipated growth is the expected improvement in global GDP, which is likely to bolster demand for Bharatiya goods. The IMF has revised its world economic outlook upwards, indicating a conducive environment for international trade, with the World Trade Organization (WTO) also predicting growth in merchandise trade volumes.
Poonam Gupta, Director General of NCAER, shed light on the potential influence of these factors on Bharat’s economic performance. She emphasized the importance of an above-normal monsoon and the acceleration in global growth and trade volumes in driving Bharat’s growth trajectory.
NCAER’s monthly economic review underscores the positive momentum in various sectors. Manufacturing and services sectors have shown signs of expansion, with robust Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures.
In addition, key metrics such as Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections and Unified Payments Interface (UPI) transactions reflect strong economic activity.
Echoing NCAER’s sentiments, the latest edition of EY Economy Watch also emphasizes Bharat’s sustained growth trajectory post-Covid. D.K. Srivastava, Chief Policy Advisor at EY, noted Bharat’s consistent performance above the 7% mark for the fourth consecutive year.
The Reserve Bank of India anticipates a pickup in rural activity driven by a favorable monsoon and a base effect, leading to increased private consumption. Further, the services sector is expected to surpass pre-pandemic trends, while prospects for fixed investment remain promising.
A significant factor contributing to Bharat’s economic outlook is declining inflation. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased marginally in March 2024, primarily due to moderation in fuel and food prices.
Similarly, Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation remained low, indicating stable price levels conducive to economic growth.
The convergence of positive domestic and global factors signals a promising outlook for the Bharatiya economy in the fiscal year 2024-25, with projections of growth exceeding 7% supported by strong fundamentals across various sectors.
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