The low-pressure area over the southwest and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal moved northeastwards and was located over the west central and adjoining south Bay of Bengal on Thursday morning, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The IMD has issued a warning that Cyclone ‘Remal’ is expected to form over the east central Bay of Bengal by the morning of May 25.
Following its formation, Cyclone ‘Remal’ is projected to move northwards and approach the coasts of Bangladesh and adjoining West Bengal by the evening of May 26 as a severe cyclonic storm, with wind speeds reaching between 100 to 120 kmph.
The IMD stated, “It is very likely to continue to move northeastwards and concentrate into a Depression over central parts of the Bay of Bengal by the morning of May 24. Thereafter, it is very likely to continue to move northeastwards, intensify further into a cyclonic storm over the east central Bay of Bengal by May 25 morning.”
Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, had earlier warned that a low-pressure system would develop in the south Bay of Bengal during May 22–23. Koll explained that sea surface temperatures in the south Bay of Bengal have been 2–3°C warmer than usual for an extended period, providing a constant supply of heat and moisture essential for cyclone formation.
“The Madden Julian Oscillation, an eastward traveling band of clouds, coupled with the winds and warm ocean waters, is moving to the south of the Bay of Bengal. These winds provide a rotational trigger for the cyclones to initiate,” Koll added.
Koll also noted a potential limiting factor: the quick northward progression of the monsoon, which could suppress the vertical formation of the cyclone. “If that’s the case, this low-pressure area will end up as a monsoon depression bringing rain. Otherwise, it could develop into a weak cyclone of a short duration,” he said.
As the situation develops, the IMD continues to monitor the system closely and will provide further updates on the expected path and intensity of Cyclone ‘Remal’.
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