Despite recent increases in gross domestic product (GDP), more than half of Americans believe the United States is currently in an economic recession, according to a new Guardian/Harris poll. The survey found that 56% of respondents think the country is in a recession, with 58% attributing the blame to President Joe Biden.
In the first quarter of 2024, the U.S. GDP grew by 1.6%, a slowdown from the 3.3% growth observed in the fourth quarter of 2023. However, U.S. GDP growth continues to outpace that of other developed nations. President Biden has emphasized the strength of the economy, stating in April, “America has the best economy in the world.”
The poll indicates that inflation and the rising cost of living—factors not typically considered in recession determinations by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)—are heavily influencing public sentiment. Seventy percent of respondents cited the cost of living as their primary economic concern, while 68% pointed to inflation.
Financial pressures are making it difficult for two-thirds of Americans, including 65% of Democrats, to feel optimistic about positive economic news. Despite the slowing rate of inflation since its 2022 peak, it remains higher than in pre-pandemic years, with prices significantly elevated compared to 2019 levels. The poll reveals that 55% of Americans mistakenly believe the economy is shrinking this year, and 49% think the S&P 500 is down, although it is up for the year.
Trust in economic reporting is low, with 64% of Americans unsure of whom to trust for accurate information. Even when economic data is accurately reported, 62% believe the economy is worse than portrayed by the media.
The Guardian/Harris poll arrives less than six months before the November election, in which President Biden will face former President Donald Trump. The Biden campaign is actively working to highlight the president’s economic achievements and to shift public perception to acknowledge the progress made since the pandemic.
“We know our work is not done,” White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said in January, recognizing the gap between positive economic indicators and public perception. Jacklyn Cooney, a research manager at Harris, noted to Axios, “Americans have perception gaps around the economy.”
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