Japan could suffer economic losses of up to $1.81 trillion if a massive earthquake strikes its Pacific coast, a government report warned on Monday. The disaster, expected to trigger devastating tsunamis and widespread destruction, could claim nearly 300,000 lives.
The estimated damage of 270.3 trillion yen amounts to nearly half of Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP). This projection has risen sharply from the previous estimate of 214.2 trillion yen due to inflation and updated terrain and ground data, which have expanded the predicted flood zones, according to the Cabinet Office report.
As one of the world’s most earthquake-prone nations, Japan faces an 80% probability of a magnitude 8 to 9 earthquake occurring in the Nankai Trough, a seismic zone spanning about 900 kilometers along the southwest Pacific coast. The area, where the Philippine Sea Plate subducts beneath the Eurasian Plate, has historically experienced megaquakes every 100 to 150 years.
In the worst-case scenario of a magnitude 9 earthquake, approximately 1.23 million people—10% of Japan’s population—may require evacuation. The report warns that if such a disaster strikes on a winter night, casualties could reach 298,000 due to intensified destruction from tsunamis and building collapses.
Japan issued its first megaquake advisory last year, citing a “relatively higher chance” of a magnitude 9 quake after a magnitude 7.1 tremor was recorded near the Nankai Trough’s edge.
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