Is Pakistan Losing Its Nukes? Terror-Hub Faces Collapse Amid Debt, Drought, and Division

Pakistan, once proud of being the first Muslim country with nuclear weapons, is now facing serious challenges that could force it to give up its atomic bombs. These challenges are growing every day, from financial disaster to internal fights between provinces. Experts around the world now believe that a time may come soon when global pressure forces Pakistan to denuclearise, even if it means overriding its national sovereignty.

Let’s understand how Pakistan reached this dangerous position, and why it may no longer afford the nuclear weapons it claims are essential for its security.

Pakistan’s Old Strategy: Threaten with Nukes, Then Hide

Pakistan has a predictable pattern when it comes to its dealings with India. It often provokes India by supporting terrorist attacks, and then hides behind its nuclear weapons to stop any large Indian retaliation.

A recent example was the Pahalgam massacre in April, after which India launched Operation Sindoor to target terrorist camps inside Pakistan. As Indian strikes intensified, Pakistan’s military rushed to ask for peace, clearly showing that its nuclear threats were a bluff.

But what if next time, the world calls that bluff completely?

The High Cost of Nuclear Weapons

Pakistan has around 165 nuclear warheads, according to estimates by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Maintaining this arsenal costs over $2 billion every year. That is almost 20% of its total defence budget.

At the same time, Pakistan’s economy is collapsing. The country’s external debt is over $125 billion, more than half of its entire GDP. Its foreign exchange reserves are so low that it must borrow money just to pay back previous loans. In 2023, the IMF gave Pakistan its 23rd bailout, but with harsh conditions like reducing military spending.

If this trend continues, in the next 5 years, Pakistan may not be able to afford its nuclear programme. With inflation rising, public services like hospitals and schools collapsing, and provinces demanding more money, people will begin to question why the government is spending billions on nuclear bombs they never use.

Water Crisis Threatens Nuclear Facilities

Nuclear plants need large amounts of water to stay cool and safe. But Pakistan is facing a severe water crisis, especially after India decided to suspend the Indus Water Treaty, a water-sharing agreement between the two countries signed in 1960.

India has started using its full share of river water legally by building projects like the Shahpur Kandi barrage. This will reduce the flow of water into Pakistan, especially into the Indus basin, where most of Pakistan’s nuclear infrastructure is located.

With climate change making water even scarcer, Pakistan may soon struggle to find enough water to keep its nuclear facilities running safely. That puts its entire nuclear programme at risk.

Internal Divisions Are Growing

Pakistan is not a united country anymore. Punjab, the most powerful province, dominates politics, the military, and resources. This has made other provinces angry, especially Balochistan, Sindh, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Balochistan has an active insurgency. Sindh demands a fair share of the income from its natural resources. Even in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, there are protests against the central government for changing the local demographics.

This growing division makes it harder to keep the nuclear command under central control. If provinces begin to break away or gain more autonomy, they will focus on local needs like food, water, and healthcare, not nuclear weapons. In such a situation, who will control the nuclear codes?

The Nightmare Scenario: Loose Nukes

The most dangerous possibility is a completely broken Pakistan, where the central government loses all control. In this situation:

• Provincial governments or ethnic groups could claim control of nuclear weapons.
• Militias or terrorist groups might get access to atomic materials.
• The nuclear chain of command could break down.

This would be a global security nightmare. Unlike North Korea, which is isolated and tightly controlled, Pakistan is in a highly unstable region. If nuclear weapons fall into the wrong hands, the risk of nuclear terrorism becomes real.

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If Pakistan becomes unstable, the international community may no longer respect its sovereignty. The world may demand the removal or control of nuclear weapons, just like it did with countries like Libya or tried to do with Iraq.

Already, discussions are happening in global forums about what actions can be taken if Pakistan loses control of its nukes. India, the United States, and European nations may support emergency operations to secure loose weapons.

The truth is harsh: Pakistan may soon have to choose between keeping its nuclear weapons and saving its country from collapse. It cannot afford both. Its economy is sinking, water is running out, and its provinces are fighting for survival.