Bharat stock markets, represented by the Sensex and the Nifty, experienced an upward trend in early deals on February 13, thanks to strong global cues. At 9:20 am, the Sensex was up by 0.2 percent at 71,239, while the Nifty gained 0.1 percent to reach 21,653. Market volatility, as measured by the India VIX, remained above the 16 mark, indicating choppy trade ahead.
Analysts foresee the market to largely follow global trends and stay rangebound in the near term, given the absence of major triggers and the conclusion of the corporate earnings season. Sacchitanand Uttekar, Vice President of Research at TradeBulls Securities, highlighted that a significant shift in market sentiment would likely require the Nifty to decisively close above 21,840. Until then, any change in the negative bias of the markets would be difficult to assess.
Expectations and Projections
Uttekar projected that seasonal influences might affect the February series, with the Nifty expected to fluctuate within the 21,000-22,000 range in the near future. However, profit-booking was observed across broader markets, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices slipping up to 1 percent within the first hour of trade.
Shrikant Chouhan, Executive Vice-President at Kotak Securities, anticipates continued correction in mid-and small-cap companies, especially as the end of the financial year approaches. He emphasized that profit-booking across these segments is occurring due to their strong rallies in comparison to quarterly financials.
Sectoral Performance and Economic Indicators
Sectorally, Bank Nifty and Nifty Pharma indices participated in the rally, while Nifty Metal emerged as the worst-performing sector in morning trade on February 13. On the macroeconomic front, India’s retail inflation dropped to a three-month low of 5.1 percent in January, primarily due to easing food prices. Despite this decrease, inflation has remained within the tolerance range of 2 percent to 6 percent for the fifth consecutive month. Core inflation also fell to 3.6 percent from 3.9 percent in December 2023.
Global Market Dynamics and Future Trends
Internationally, investors are keeping an eye on US inflation figures, which are expected to be released later in the day, as they will provide insight into the trajectory of interest rate cuts. Expectations of central banks reducing interest rates due to declining inflation are significantly influencing markets. The recent strong job data has made a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March less likely, with May now being seen as a more probable timing. Overnight, the US markets closed with mixed results, with the Dow Jones reaching a record high, gaining 0.3 percent, while the NASDAQ Composite and S&P 500 indices slipped marginally. In Asia-Pacific markets, most indices edged higher, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s Kospi both gaining 1 percent, while Australia’s S&P 200 index experienced a marginal decline.
Comments