In a seismic electoral shift, France’s far-right National Rally (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, has surged ahead with a commanding lead in the first round of legislative elections held on June 30, stunning President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition. This surprising development not only positions the RN strongly to win the July 7 runoff but is expected to change the political trajectory of France as it is for the first-time in history that the country would get a far-right government since World War II. According to exit polls, the RN has surpassed both Macron’s alliance and the left-wing New Popular Front coalition, garnering an astounding 33.2% to 33.5% of the votes, respectively. With tensions rising, the result sets the stage for a hotly contested second round on July 7 that might reshape the political landscape of the nation.
Notably, France’s Parliamentary elections highlight long standing concerns over immigration, economic policy, and national identity, with a record-high voter turnout of 65%. The outcome of the next runoff election will significantly impact France’s role in the European Union, both internationally and domestically. On one hand, analysts predict the RN could secure between 230 to 310 seats out of 577 in the National Assembly, potentially drastically altering France’s political landscape, on the other, efforts are underway to prevent Le Pen’s party from gaining a decisive majority and using it to undermine Macron’s programs and redirect French politics. The far-right opposition has already begun organizing to gather votes against the RN in the runoff.
President Macron’s centrist coalition received approximately 21.0% to 22.1% of the votes in this round, marking a significant setback following his decision to dissolve the National Assembly after a political debacle in the Eurpoean Union elections. Prior to the runoff, Macron has urged solidarity against the far-right, emphasizing the critical juncture facing France’s future.
In this regard, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal has warned of the potential for France’s first far-right government since World War II if voters do not unite against the National Rally in the second round.
Nevertheless, the results of France’s parliamentary elections, scheduled for July 7, have the potential to drastically reshape France’s foreign policy and domestic agenda. The country approaches a critical election day with heightened anxiety and expectation, as voters prepare to cast their ballots amidst intensifying discussions over social changes, environmental regulations, and economic recovery.
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