KEY POINTS
- Pakistan’s electricity generation has dropped to pre-pandemic levels, showing a collapsing economy.
- Over 40% of its energy depends on imported gas, mainly from Qatar, making it highly vulnerable.
- Renewable and hydropower growth is almost zero, exposing long-term energy and financial failure.
From Sui gas to imported oil, Pakistan’s failing energy backbone reflects its national decay. Pakistan today stands at a breaking point. With rising inflation, dwindling industry, collapsing investment, and nearly no economic growth, the country’s economic foundation is crumbling. But if one sector reflects the full scale of this collapse, it is Pakistan’s energy sector. Electricity generation is falling, fuel imports are uncertain, and dependence on external sources is deeper than ever. The picture is grim: a nuclear-armed nation that cannot power itself.
Electricity Generation in Decline
According to the British Petroleum (BP) 2024 Global Energy Report, considered a gold standard in the industry, Pakistan’s electricity generation has fallen back to pre-pandemic levels. This is the exact opposite of what one expects from a growing economy. While other nations, including India, show upward trends in energy demand due to industrial and developmental growth, Pakistan is shrinking. A reduction in electricity production is a direct sign of reduced economic activity and lost confidence from industries and investors.
Pakistan does not produce its own oil in any significant volume. Almost all the oil it uses is imported. Over the last decade, however, Pakistan’s oil consumption has steadily declined. This drop is not due to energy efficiency or a shift to renewables, it’s because of falling demand and lack of funds. The country is simply too broke to afford what it needs.
Worse, more than 25% of the energy Pakistan generates comes from outdated furnace oil, which it must import. This is an expensive and unreliable method of power generation that exposes Pakistan’s vulnerability. If the global oil market shifts or suppliers pull back, Pakistan could go dark.
The Collapse of Gas Production
Pakistan once relied on the Sui gas fields in Balochistan as a steady energy source. But now, those fields are in rapid decline. Data shows that since 2015, Pakistan has been unable to meet its own gas demands and started importing Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). From 2019 onwards, even gas consumption has declined. It’s a sign that Pakistan’s energy backbone is breaking down from within.
The Sui gas wells are no longer enough, and LNG imports are rising, but so are their costs. Pakistan lacks the foreign currency reserves to sustain this. If the international LNG market shifts or prices rise, the country could be left without gas, affecting both households and industries.
Over 40% of Pakistan’s energy is now gas-based, and most of the imported LNG enters through a single terminal at Port Qasim in Karachi. This is a massive national security and economic risk. Any disruption, natural disaster, sabotage, or diplomatic fallout could shut down the energy supply for half the country.
Such a narrow bottleneck in energy logistics is a sign of poor planning and deep strategic weakness.
Qatar’s Gas, America’s Pressure, and Pakistan’s Helplessness
Almost 87% of Pakistan’s LNG comes from Qatar. But as competition heats up from America, Australia, India, and even Iran, Qatar’s ability to supply Pakistan is not guaranteed. The United States is pushing hard to control LNG markets. Qatar may prioritize big buyers like India and China and offer them discounts, leaving Pakistan out.
India, being a major buyer and with growing geopolitical weight, could use this moment to pressure Qatar into cutting or slowing supplies to Pakistan. If that happens, Islamabad will be helpless. It doesn’t have the leverage, the economy, or the alliances to respond.
When we look for solutions, there are none in sight. Renewable energy investment in Pakistan is almost zero. In 2023, just 0.06 Terawatt-hours came from renewables, barely 0.0007% of total electricity production.
What about hydropower? That, too, is stagnant. Pakistan’s hydel generation has barely grown in the last 25 years. Meanwhile, India continues to expand its hydropower capacity rapidly. In some years, India adds more hydropower than Pakistan has built in its entire modern history. The situation is only getting worse after India abrogated the Indus Water Treaty.
Even Coal Can’t Save Pakistan
Pakistan has little coal of its own. In 2023, it produced just 17 million tons, while India produced over 1 billion tons, and China produced over 4 billion tons. This means India produces in one week what Pakistan manages in a year. Most of Pakistan’s coal is imported, again mostly through Karachi. It’s another point of dependence and potential failure.
Pakistan often brandishes its nuclear weapons as a symbol of strength. But this is like putting a golden crown on a beggar. It cannot fund its own energy needs, let alone fuel a conventional war. Its entire infrastructure, from oil to gas to coal to electricity, is collapsing. A country that cannot keep its lights on should think twice before talking about war.
Operation Sindoor and the End of Illusions
India’s Operation Sindoor exposed the hollowness of Pakistan’s nuclear threats. When confronted with real military capability and precision planning, all Pakistan could do was bluster. It is a broken state, not a rising power. It survives not through growth, innovation, or production, but through borrowed money and outdated weapons.
The only real question is: Will Pakistan collapse due to its own incompetence and extremism first, or will the world step back and let it fade into irrelevance? Either way, Jinnah’s dream has become a nightmare. A failed state pretending to be a regional power is now running out of time and wattage.
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