Bharat is set to engage in talks with the Maldives during the upcoming high-level core group meeting to discuss the withdrawal of Indian defense personnel operating two ALH helicopters, one Dornier aircraft, and an offshore patrol vessel (OPV) in the Maldives. The demand for withdrawal came from the Mohammed Muizzu government, suggesting that Indian personnel should be withdrawn by March 15, just two days before the critical Majlis election on March 17.
During the first meeting of the core group on January 14 and 15, Maldivian representative Ali Naseer urged the Indian High Commissioner to Maldives, Munu Mahawar, to replace the defense personnel with civilian crew by the specified deadline. New Delhi’s response is expected in the February round of talks, based on the availability of civilian crew for the surveillance assets.
The strained relations have led to the grounding of two ALH helicopters, one Dornier aircraft, and one OPV, as President Muizzu continues an anti-India campaign ahead of the Majlis elections. The Maldivian position has become more assertive following Muizzu’s party’s loss in the Male mayoral election to the Maldivian Democratic Party, which advocates maintaining ties with India.
Potential Involvement of Beijing and Economic Implications:
There are speculations that President Muizzu may seek support from Beijing to replace Indian assets with Chinese ones, with crews arranged from private companies in Singapore. However, such a move could impose a significant financial burden, estimated to be upwards of $10 million, on the economically challenged Maldives. The country’s debt to China and India constitutes 30% and 10% of its GDP, respectively, and it faces a debt repayment of $100 million to India this year.
It is noteworthy that during the talks, the only substantial issue related to India raised by Male was the withdrawal of defense personnel. Surprisingly, there was no discussion on the India-funded and managed Greater Male Connectivity Project, a substantial infrastructure project in the Maldives. This project, funded under a grant of $100 million and a $400 million line of credit from India, aims to build a 6.74-kilometer-long bridge and causeway link connecting Male with adjoining islands.
President Muizzu’s comments during and after his visit to Beijing on January 8-12 suggest that he may be exploring China as a potential source of funds and resources. However, experts caution that Sri Lanka’s experiences with Chinese investments serve as a cautionary tale.
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