The threat of ISIS might have seemed to be waning as headlines turned to Ukraine, Gaza and the next US election.
But last week’s attack on a Moscow concert hall reminded the world of the danger of Islamist terrorism and the ambitions of what is known as IS Khorasan (ISIS-K) far beyond its camps in the mountains of Afghanistan.
Analysts believe the group has a growing focus on Europe – and point to events such as this year’s Paris Olympics as potential targets.
ISIS claimed responsibility for the Moscow attack. The fact that Tajik nationals were involved indicates ISIS-K was responsible; the group draws many members from central Asia and has a record of previous plots in Russia. US officials have also said there is evidence ISIS-K carried out the attack.
ISIS-K was created nine years ago as an autonomous ‘province’ of the Islamic State, and despite many enemies has survived and proved itself capable of launching attacks in Pakistan, Iran and central Asia.
Before the Crocus City attack, it had planned others in Europe and Russia. The commander of US Central Command, Gen. Erik Kurilla, assessed recently that ISIS-K “retains the capability and the will to attack US and Western interests abroad in as little as six months with little to no warning.
”UN experts and others – including the Russian security services – estimate the strength of ISIS-K at between 4,000 and 6,000 fighters. Sanaullah Ghafari became the group’s leader in 2020 and, despite occasional reports of his demise, terrorism analysts believe he remains an effective leader.
Both the Taliban and the United States have sought – though not in concert – to expunge ISIS-K from its safe havens in eastern Afghanistan.
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