In a February interview with former TV host Tucker Carlson, Russian President Vladimir Putin posed a provocative question to Americans: “Don’t you have anything better to do?” This question reflects Putin’s strategy regarding the conflict in Ukraine. He believes that Americans will eventually lose interest in supporting Ukraine, and the U.S. will focus on its own issues instead.
Political Turmoil in the U.S.
President Joe Biden, a key ally of Ukraine, is currently facing significant political challenges. Some Democrats are urging him not to run for re-election. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump, who is leading in the polls, has chosen Senator JD Vance, a vocal critic of U.S. aid to Ukraine, as his running mate. At the Republican National Convention, Trump pledged to end the conflict in Ukraine and warned of the risk of “World War III.”
The direction of U.S. foreign policy seems to be moving towards an inward focus, which aligns with Putin’s expectations. Analysts in Moscow are closely watching American public opinion and news reports. Dmitry Trenin, former head of the Carnegie Moscow Center, noted that Americans prioritize domestic issues over foreign problems.
Public Opinion on Ukraine Aid
Polls indicate that while many Americans support helping Ukraine, they do not view it as a critical electoral issue. According to a Pew Research Center poll, 50% of Americans believe limiting Russian influence is important, but only 23% feel the same about supporting Ukraine. A YouGov survey revealed that only 30% of Americans support pledging 10 years of military aid to Ukraine.
Putin claims he is fighting for historical justice, asserting that Ukraine is a rightful part of Russia. He views the U.S. as being led by an anti-Russian elite and believes that Russia can outlast this elite. He is willing to bear significant costs in lives and resources to continue the conflict in Ukraine. Analysts suggest that Putin expects the West will eventually stop supporting Ukraine and push its leaders into a peace agreement on Russia’s terms.
Carlson Interview and U.S. Priorities
In his interview with Carlson, Putin suggested that the U.S. should focus on its issues, such as migration and national debt, rather than confronting Russia. Carlson, who has a large following among Trump’s supporters, echoed similar views, arguing that the U.S. military should address domestic problems instead of helping Ukraine.
However, it might be premature for Putin to celebrate. His assumptions about U.S. policies have often been incorrect. For instance, Russia supported Trump in the 2016 election, but Trump still sent weapons to Ukraine and imposed sanctions on Russia. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the strong response from the West caught Putin by surprise, leading to the freezing of billions of dollars in Russian reserves.
Russian officials are now more cautious about seeing a potential Trump re-election as beneficial. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov remarked that under Trump, Russia did not see significant positive changes. This time, Putin has expressed a preference for Biden, citing his experience and predictable behavior. However, this endorsement may not be genuine, as support from Putin could harm a candidate’s standing among American voters.
Deteriorating U.S.-Russia Relations
Relations between the U.S. and Russia remain strained. Ivan Timofeev from the Russian International Affairs Council believes that the relationship is deteriorating, with little hope for improvement. Despite the focus on Ukraine aid by critics like Vance, the war in Ukraine is not a major topic in the U.S. presidential campaign. Trump’s speech at the convention did not provide details on how he would end the war but warned of the risk of World War III, echoing Putin’s warnings.
In Russia, there is a sense that Americans are not paying enough attention to these warnings. Ekaterina Moore, a Russian-American commentator, noted that American politicians do not have the long-term perspective that Putin has, as he has been in power for a long time. On Russian talk shows, the focus is often on American politics, which are described as unstable, rather than on Russia’s own challenges.
Putin’s strategy regarding Ukraine relies on the belief that Americans will eventually lose interest in supporting Ukraine and focus on their issues. The political turmoil in the U.S., coupled with shifting public opinion, may bring the U.S. foreign policy closer to Putin’s expectations. However, given past miscalculations, it remains uncertain whether Putin’s strategy will ultimately succeed. Relations between the U.S. and Russia are likely to remain strained, regardless of the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.
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